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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-1-15)

Release time:2015-01-15

Jan 15, 2015 02:01 GMT   Source:SMM

 

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 15 (SMM) – LME lead started Wednesday at an intraday high of USD 1,817/mt in the Asian trading session, but followed LME copper down to a trough of USD 1,743/mt in the European trading session. The price of the soft metal rebounded to USD 1,790/mt at one point, helped by a fall in the US dollar index, and closed at USD 1,759/mt. Trading volumes for three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange gained 3,495 lots to 8,089 lots, while positions added 289 to 120,212. LME lead inventories remained unchanged at 215,825 mt on Wednesday.

Lead for March delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, opened Wednesday’s night session at RMB 11,830/mt and surged to RMB 12,080/mt as shorts headed for the exit. The price of the SHFE 1503 lead contract finished up RMB 15/mt at RMB 11,970/mt. Trading volumes for the most active contract totaled 13,674 lots, while positions decreased 732 to 26,718 in the night session.

US import prices tumbled 2.5% MoM in December, the biggest fall in six years. The country’s retail sales decreased 0.9% MoM over the same month due in large part to plummeting crude and gasoline prices.

LME copper slumped 8% to USD 5,353.25/mt on Wednesday, the lowest since July 2009, taking the decline to almost 30% from last July. It was reported that many hedge funds rushed to sell to stop further losses, compounding the decline in the price of the red metal. Some market participants held that investors in the commodities market favored oil while building short positions on copper.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude, the American benchmark, ended up 5.6% at USD 48.48/bbl on Wednesday. The Energy Information Administration, however, reported that US crude oil inventories in the week ending January 9 increased by 5.4 million barrels, well above expectations. The US Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book that policymakers were concerned about impact from recent declines in crude prices on the US economy.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny stated on Wednesday that policy makers must treat the threat of deflation seriously and shouldn’t delay a response. This comment has boosted market confidence toward the single currency area’s economic outlook.

Gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday. US stocks extended losses, while European stocks closed down 1.5%. The US dollar index retreated a fraction. LME base metals finished lower across the board.

As such, LME lead is expected to test support at USD 1,743/mt against negative technical indicators and move at USD 1,730-1,780/mt on Thursday. The most active SHFE 1503 lead contract is set to hover at RMB 11,870-12,100/mt. Spot lead prices in China should range between RMB 12,300-12,450/mt.

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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