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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-1-19)

Release time:2015-01-19

Jan 19, 2015 02:10 GMT   Source:SMM

 

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 19 (SMM) – LME lead surged 4.33% last Friday, helped by stabilizing crude prices. Trading volumes for three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange gained 612 lots to 4,928 lots, while positions added 1,340 to 123,778. LME lead inventories held flat at 215,825 mt last Friday.

Lead for March delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, rallied to RMB 12,485/mt after starting last Friday’s night session at RMB 12,170/mt and closed up RMB 175/mt at RMB 12,440/mt. During the night session, trading volumes for the SHFE 1503 lead contract totaled 7,470 lots, while positions shed 224 to 21,474.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported last Friday that plummeting oil prices may cause crude supply growth in non-OPEC oil producing countries to slow this year. The IEA cut its forecast for crude supply in these countries by 350,000 barrels per day and expected crude demand in OPEC members to increase 300,000 barrels per day to 29.2 million barrels per day. As such, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the American benchmark, finished up 5.3% at USD 48.69/bbl last Friday.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index stunned markets by surging from 93.6 to 98.2 in December, its highest since 2004 and well above 94.1 expected. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% YoY over the same month, a bit higher than a 0.7% increase expected. The country’s industrial output dwindled 0.1% MoM in last December, down for the first time since August 2014. The fractional fall was, by and large, due to the fact that unusually warm temperatures restrained heating demand and in turn depressed output in the public sectors. Boosted by a rebound in crude prices, US stocks ended sharply higher last Friday, ending a five-day losing streak.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported last Saturday that new house prices in Shenzhen among 70 medium and large cities rose 1.2% MoM in December, something not seen in three months. 8 cities reported a monthly rise in second-hand house prices over the same month, with prices up noticeably in Shanghai. Trading volumes for new residential houses increased nearly 9% MoM in December, 2014’s highest. The NBS proffered that the improvement in China’s property market was a result of previous credit policy adjustment, interest rate cuts, as well as enhanced sales efforts by developers at year’s end.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) warned or punished 12 securities dealers on the ground of financing irregularities following inspections over 45 dealers last Friday.

The US dollar index rose 0.37% last Friday. London gold and silver closed up 1.36% and 5.02%, respectively. Major world shares finished higher. LME base metals ended with gains across the board, with most base metals up over 2%.

Base metals prices should extend gains as crude prices rebound, but will confront pressure from the strengthening US dollar on Monday. LME lead is expected to meet resistance at USD 1,850/mt and hover at USD 1,830-1,870/mt. The most active SHFE 1503 lead contract is set to fluctuate at RMB 12,350-12,550/mt. Spot lead prices should range between RMB 12,450-12,600/mt on Monday.
 

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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