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SMM Base Metals Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jan. 19-23, 2015)

Release time:2015-01-21

Jan 20, 2015 03:18 GMT   Source:SMM

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 20 (SMM) – Heavy selling led to significant fall across base metal markets last week. The World Bank slashed global growth forecast. Meanwhile, expectation for the European Central Bank (ECB)’s further quantitative easing and concerns over a potential Greek exit from the euro zone sent the euro to its lowest in nine years. In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book suggested officials’ concerns that tumbling crude oil may hurt the US recovery. Speculators shifted to gold and US Treasury bonds from stock market, resulting in a four-day losing streak in US shares. The US dollar index hovered near 92. SMMI.Cu fell by 8.58% last week and SMMI.Zn dropped 3.78%. An influx of imported zinc hit China’s spot zinc markets, with spot prices once down by 4.26%. SMMI.Ni posted a 3.14% decline last week, with LME nickel off by more than 5% and Jinchuan Group cutting prices by RMB 3,500/mt to RMB 107,500/mt. SMMI.Sn fell by 1.36%, outperforming LME tin which registered a nearly 5% decrease. SMMI.Al slipped 2.5% and SMMI.Pb dropped 0.98%. Chinese lead prices were resistant to declines due to tight supply. SMMI declined 5.65% last week. Copper SHFE copper followed LME copper down to around RMB 40,000/mt, and hit a low of RMB 39,820/mt, losing nearly 10% for the week. All copper contracts on SHFE fell by the daily limit January 14, with trading volumes and positions soaring. Technical indicators pointed downwards and the market was oversold. China’s spot copper market experienced large swings last week. Spot copper quoted at discounts of 100-200/mt early last week. Some short sellers expanded discounts to RMB 1,000-1,500/mt for the first time since October 2008 with SHFE copper prices down by the daily limit January 14. SMM expects spot copper at a discount of RMB 100/mt and a RMB 50/mt premium to the SHFE 1502 copper contract. SHFE copper this week may track LME copper prices and move between RMB 39,800-42,000/mt, but investors should be wary of selling pressures on distant-month contracts. Aluminu......

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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