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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-1-21)

Release time:2015-01-21

Jan 21, 2015 01:43 GMT   Source:SMM

 

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 21 (SMM) – Boosted by positive economic indicators from China and Germany, LME lead overnight rose above USD 1,900/mt and closed up USD 52/mt at USD 1,902/mt. Trading volumes for three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange added 1,077 lots to 4,837 lots, but positions shed 2,988 to 122,828. LME lead inventories dwindled 50 mt to 215,675 mt.

Lead for March delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, started at RMB 12,555/mt and then fell to RMB 12,470-12,500/mt before ending up RMB 90/mt, or 0.73% at RMB 12,495/mt. Trading volumes for the SHFE 1503 lead contract totaled 3,940 lots, while positions gained 124 to 19,368.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Tuesday that the country’s GDP grew 7.4% in 2014, the lowest since 1990, but above 7.3% expected, with GDP for the full year exceeding USD 10 trillion. China’s GDP increased 7.3% YoY in Q4, higher than 7.2% expected.

China’s retail sales of consumer goods rose 11.9% YoY in December, a refreshed 4-month high. The country’s urban fixed asset investment increased 15.7% last year, the smallest rise since 2001, while its fixed asset investment grew 1.21% MoM in December. China’s industrial production accelerated in December to the highest level of Q4. Growth in value added at large Chinese industrials was 0.5 percentage point higher than expected and 0.7 percentage point higher than November.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for German rose from 34.9 in December to a new 11-month high of 48.4 in January. The Current Situation Index surged from 10.0 to 22.4 over the same month, well above 13.0 expected.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected in its latest report that the world economy would expand by 3.5% this year and 3.7% next year, lower than its previous estimates. The IMF also lowered its projections for China’s GDP growth to 6.8% this year and 6.3% next year, down 0.3 and 0.5 percentage point from previous estimates, respectively. Oil prices tumbled almost 5% again on Tuesday amid worries over a slowdown in the world economy.

The US dollar index closed up 0.53% to stand above 93, while the euro ended down 0.48% versus the greenback on Tuesday. Major world shares rose across the board. LME tin finished slightly lower, but other base metals rose, with lead up 2.81%.

Base metals prices should rise fractionally on Wednesday, helped by China’s better-than-expected GDP growth for Q4 and a sharp rise in Germany’s economic sentiment index. LME lead is set to hover at USD 1,890-1,930/mt, while the most active SHFE 1503 lead contract is expected to move at RMB 12,400-12,600/mt. Spot lead prices in China should range between RMB 12,500-12,600/mt on Wednesday.
 

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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