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SMM Base Metals Market Daily Review (2015-1-26)

Release time:2015-01-27

Jan 27, 2015 01:57 GMT   Source:SMM

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 27 (SMM)-- Copper: Copper for April delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, started lower at RMB 40,420/mt and then fell to RMB 40,030/mt before ending down RMB 850/mt, or 2.08% at RMB 40,060/mt in last Friday's night session. Positions for the SHFE 1504 copper contract increased 3,010 to 305,032, while trading volumes totaled some 200,000 lots. On Monday, SHFE copper initially managed to hover around RMB 39,800/mt, but fell by the daily trading limit to RMB 38,860/mt in the afternoon trading session amid growing selling and volatile RMB exchange rate. The price of the red metal recouped some losses at the tail of the trading and finished down RMB 1,660/mt, or 4.06% at RMB 39,250/mt. Trading volumes for the most active contract soared by 235,000 lots, while positions surged by 36,370. Trading volumes for all SHFE copper contracts spiked by 326,000 lots, while positions increased by 41,198. SHFE copper has returned to a downward trajectory against growing selling on SHFE back-month copper contracts. Spot copper was quoted between a RMB 20/mt discount and a RMB 50/mt premium to the SHFE 1502 copper contract in Shanghai on Monday. Standard- and high-quality copper sold for RMB 39,850-40,330/mt and RMB 39,880-40,380/mt, respectively. In the wake of a tumble in SHFE copper, wait-and-see sentiment grew in the market, leaving spot copper prices quoted later than usual. Spot copper remained sufficient as the month-end liquidity crunch forced smelters to sell and as hedged supplies hit the market. Standard-quality copper traded steadily at par with the SHFE 1502 copper contract, while high-quality copper traded nearly at a RMB 50/mt premium to the contract. Quotations for hydro-copper were firm due to tight supply, almost equal to those for standard-quality copper. Cargo holders held quotations steady even though the SHFE front-month copper contract fell below RMB 40,000/mt by the midday. Downstream producers stepped up bargain-hunting to capitalize on the sharp fall in futures prices. Spot copper remained in surplus on Monday. As SHFE copper plunged in the afternoon trading session, spot copper was offered at a RMB 0-50/mt premium and traded below RMB 40,000/mt.     Aluminum: Last Friday night, SHFE 1503 aluminum contract was range-bound after starting at RMB 12,790/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 12,785/mt. Trading volumes totaled 8,102 lots, with positions down 610 to 121,810.   SHFE 1504 aluminum contract became the most active one on Monday. The contract fell to RMB 12,765/mt as market panicked after SHFE copper hit daily downside limit. However, the metal rebounded later to close at RMB 12,825/mt. Trading volumes totaled 33,432 lots, with positions up 4,892 to 123,432.    Spot aluminum largely traded between RMB 12,660-12,670/mt in Shanghai on Monday, discounts of RMB 30-60/mt over SHFE 1502 aluminum contract, versus RMB 12,660-12,680/mt in Wuxi and Hangzhou. Growing willingness to sell and falling SHFE aluminum weighed spot pricesdown. Traders were active in the market. In the afternoon, a few deals were reported.    SMM surveyed 35 large aluminum smelters and traders in China.   43% of them expect aluminum prices to hold stable this week: (i) LME aluminum has found solid support at USD 1,800/mt. The US Fed is expected to remain dovish, which will keep LME aluminum stable between USD 1,800-1,850/mt; (ii) the most active SHFE aluminum contract should consolidate between RMB 12,80......

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