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SMM Base Metals Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jan. 26-30, 2015)

Release time:2015-01-29

Jan 28, 2015 02:23 GMT   Source:SMM

 

SHANGHAI, Jan. 28 (SMM) – Copper: China's crackdown on margin trading caused the Shanghai Composite Index to fall by 7% at one point last week, but Chinese stock posted a 5% rebound to rise above 3,300 again later on positive economic indicators. SHFE copper prices were firmer than LME copper as some shorts closed positions, so the SHFE/LME copper price ratio increased to 7.3. Volumes of SHFE copper contracts declined 500,000 lots, and positions dropped 15,000. Trading volumes increased 147,000 lots while positions soared by 57,844 last Friday, with SHFE copper prices surrendering earlier gains. Resistance at the 5 and 10-day moving averages strengthened. Spot premiums in China's copper market remained stable early last week as cargo holders held prices firm. But spot copper quoted at discounts to SHFE 1502 copper later due to growing supply. Chinese stock market will keep consolidating and SHFE copper may move at RMB 40,000-41,800/mt.    Aluminum: SHFE 1503 aluminum contract rose to RMB 12,950/mt early last week, but then fell back due to profit taking at highs. The SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio returned below 7.0. In China's spot market, downstream consumption fell as the off-season deepens. Sellers cut offers to promote sales, sending traded prices down. Market supply was in severe surplus.   This coming week, SHFE 1504 aluminum contract, the most active one, should consolidate between RMB 12,750-12,900/mt. In China's spot market, sellers will remain eager to move goods, while demand should weaken further. As such, spot discoun......

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