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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-2-2)

Release time:2015-02-02

Feb 02, 2015 02:06 GMT   Source:SMM

 

 

SHANGHAI, Feb. 2 (SMM) – LME lead started at USD 1,864/mt and then hovered at USD 1,850-1,870/mt last Friday, meeting resistance at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, but finding solid support at the 20-day moving average. Trading volumes for three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange gained 622 lots to 3,642 lots, while positions added 264 to 119,577. LME lead inventories shed 50 mt to 215,000 mt.

Lead for April delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, opened at RMB 12,410/mt and then dipped slightly to RMB 12,380/mt in last Friday’s night session. The price of the SHFE 1504 lead contract rebounded to RMB 12,500/mt afterwards and closed at RMB 12,445/mt. Trading volumes for the most active contract totaled 714 lots, while positions decreased 116 to 12,690.

US large oil producing companies have slashed exploration expenditures, while the number of the country’s drilling rigs fell sharply. In response, US benchmark oil prices surged over 8% to rise above USD 48/bbl, while Brent crude prices soared 7.9% to hit USD 53/bbl.

The euro zone’s January CPI fell 0.6% YoY, a decline bigger than the expected 0.5% and level with the record low. This indicates that the single currency area is now confronted with worsening deflation. However, Germany’s retail sales posted the highest growth in two and a half years in December, while Spain’s retail sales and France’s consumer spending both exceeded expectations, sending European stocks higher. US economic growth slowed to 2.6% in Q4, but remained at a renewed 4-year high last year. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was finalized at 98.1 in January, its highest in 11 years. Chicago’s manufacturing PMI for January came in at 59.4, beating expectations, while the index for December was revised upward to 58.8 from 58.3.

China’s official manufacturing PMI, published over the weekend, slipped to 49.8 in January, well short of expectations and December’s reading. The index fell below 50 for the first time since October 2012, in a sign of contracting manufacturing. Chinese manufacturing companies slowed production due to seasonal factors, such as the New Year holiday and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday. In addition, continued declines in commodity prices put a considerable dent in production. Faltering domestic and overseas demand resulted in falling slower growth in orders.

The average price of new residential houses in 100 cities edged up 0.21% MoM in January, reversing an 8-month falling streak. The China Index Academy expects the real estate market to continue improving due to more favorable fiscal and monetary policy, as well as increased market confidence.

The US dollar index inched up 0.14%, while the euro fell 0.14% versus the greenback last Friday. COMEX gold surged over 2%. Major world stocks fell across the board. LME tin ended lower, lead closed flat, and other base metals rose, with aluminum up 2.14% last Friday.

Base metals prices are expected to surrender some gains due to China’s dispiriting manufacturing PMI for January on Monday. LME lead is set to hover at USD 1,840-1,870/mt, while the most active SHFE 1504 lead contract is expected to fluctuate between RMB 12,350-12,500/mt. Spot lead in China should trade at RMB 12,450-12,600/mt.
 

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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